Arnd Peiffer turns to the BMW IBU World Championships in Lenzerheide and explains why transferring a winning form from the World Cup is never an easy task, not even for Lou Jeanmonnot, who dominated Trimester 2 and the Total Score leader Franziska Preuss. He also explains why - despite retiring at the end of the season - Johannes Thingnes Boe is still the main favourite for Lenzerheide and what the German men need to do to win a medal. And he explains how high-altitude can play tricks with athletes’ oxygen intake.

Lou Jeanmonnot had an almost perfect run in the January World Cups and dominated Trimester 2 with a win in Oberhof and Ruhpolding, ending with back-to-back triumphs in Antholz-Anterselva. Her skiing and shooting were at the highest level, and she enters the BMW IBU World Championships as the key favourite. Now - transferring the form from the World Cup to the World Championships with a two-week break in between is no easy task. We saw her training within Ridnaun-Val Ridanna until the Sprint in the IBU Cup there, trying to keep the training intensity, conserve - and add - the energy, and start focusing on Lenzerheide. The World Championships will be extremely demanding, especially for the top athletes competing in all seven races.

The Total Score leader, Franziska Press, has had a healthy season this year, missing no individual races (so far) and showing great consistency. On top of that, her shooting has improved significantly—she is currently hitting 92% of her shots, an excellent rate. Her skiing is not far behind the fastest Anamarija Lampič and Justine Braisaz-Bouchet and certainly on Paar with Lou. She appears relaxed and is enjoying the sport more. This brings us to the high altitude in Lenzerheide. It can be an influential factor, benefiting athletes with a high oxygen uptake. If you’re in excellent shape, you may hardly notice the altitude; however, if you're struggling, it can affect you much more severely. This situation may have implications for Elvira Oeberg, who unfortunately fell ill before the Antholz-Anterselva week and could not test her fitness at a high altitude.

Jeanmonnot, Preuss, and Elvira Oeberg will, of course, have many challengers, including the rising stars Jeanne Richard, Oceane Michelon, Selina Grotian, and Maren Kirkeeide. Selina has had a great Antholz- Anterselva week with second place in the Sprint and sixth in the Pursuit. She also has good memories from the Open European Championships 2023 when she was only 18 and won a gold medal in the Pursuit in Lenzerheide.

With Johannes Thingnes and Tarjei Boe announcing their retirement at the end of the season, the dynamics have changed significantly - not just in the Boe brothers' life perspective but also within the Norwegian team and probably in the expectations of the top athletes from other bigger teams.

Sturla Holm Laegreid kept his cool in very emotional two weeks for the entire biathlon and is currently leading the overall World Cup because of his incredible consistency—he has only finished outside the Top 6 twice this season. However, despite Johannes Thingnes leaving the high-altitude camp in Lavazze prematurely, I still see him as the main favourite for Lenzerheide. He knows his abilities like no one else, can switch gears almost at will, and the course suits him perfectly - he won in the Pursuit and Mass Start and finished second in the Sprint last season in Lenzerheide’s World Cup week. Tarjei also has every chance to shine. He isn’t focused on the Total Score battle and is in fantastic shape. The key for him will be finding stability in standing shooting—if he does, anything is possible.

The French team feels optimistic about their chances. They are known to perform well at high altitudes, perhaps even better than athletes from other nations. But who else could compete for the medals? We will have to wait and see how well the Swedish team adapts to the high altitude, as it has never been their preferred biathlon environment.

Tommaso Giacomel has already demonstrated his ability to win in Ruhpolding and excelled in Antholz-Anterselva. Should his ski speed, shooting accuracy, and equipment be in sync, he can contend for medals.

As for the German men: they are underdogs based on their performances this season. That said, any of them could step onto the podium on a good day. I hope at least one of them pulls it off—and they certainly have the potential to win a relay medal!