Emil Hegle Svendsen, the winner of the IBU World Cup Total Score title for the 2009/2010 season and runner-up four times, explains what it takes to win biathlon’s most coveted trophy. He analyses the potential impact of the Nove Mesto week on thrilling Franziska Preuss-Lou Jeanmonnot and JT Boe-Sturla Holm Laegreid battles and how the course and the competition programme in Pokljuka might further influence the outcome.

The battle for the Total Score is at its inflection point and I know what that means as a winner but also as someone who finished second four times. To secure the Total Score title, an athlete must compete in almost all races while maintaining a consistently high level of performance throughout the entire season. There is little room for illness, fatigue, or a significant drop in form, as any weak period can allow competitors to gain the upper hand. While luck can play a role, the title ultimately goes to the strongest, most resilient, and most adaptable athlete.

Following the Nove Mesto races, only five points separate Johannes Thingnes Boe and Sturla Holm Laegreid, setting up an intense final stretch of the season. Both athletes likely expected more from themselves—Laegreid struggled with skiing form and was not at his best physically, while Boe, despite his usual skiing dominance, missed too many targets. With only a few races remaining, every performance will be decisive. Given the Individual and Mass Start Cup standings, Laegreid could have an advantage in Pokljuka, especially if he can maintain strong shooting. However, challenging Boe is a monumental task. If Laegreid can outshoot Boe and stay close to him in skiing, he has a chance to shift the momentum in his favour. In short - he needs to win races.

Franziska Preuss and Lou Jeanmonnot are separated by 36 points after Nove Mesto, with Jeanmonnot making significant progress in the standings. Preuss’ sudden drop in skiing form following the World Championships was unexpected, giving Jeanmonnot the opportunity to close the gap. Jeanmonnot has been in much better physical shape. However, while she had a great chance to capitalise even more on Preuss’ struggles, she was not able to fully maximise the opportunity.

Looking ahead to Pokljuka, the course could play a key role in shaping the results. The Pokljuka course is physically demanding, requiring endurance and strategic pacing, but the shooting range is considered slightly easier than other venues, which could lead to high accuracy rates. Given her recent struggles, Preuss will be eager to recover and deliver a strong performance. A solid week in Pokljuka could allow her to regain control of the fight, but it will remain extremely tight to the last day.

The U23 competition continues to be one of the most exciting aspects of the season, with several young athletes fighting for top honours. As a Norwegian I am biased and I am cheering for Maren Kirkeeide. She could still win although it looks like a long shot with only two weeks remaining. At just 22 years old, she has already demonstrated remarkable maturity in her racing approach. Her biggest strength is her standing shooting, a skill that often determines the outcome of tight races, and can yield multiple major victories in the future for Maren.