It is now just days before the mixed relay kicks off ten days of biathlon competitions at the 2022 Beijing Olympic Winter Games. As in any major Championship, speculation abounds about who will walk away with medals, potential surprises and disappointments. Just harken back to the 2006 Torino OWG; no one before the Games expected the biggest star to be Michael Greis whose biggest claim to fame was his only World Cup win…at the OWG San Sicario venue one year before his three Gold medals in 2006. At the same time, these OWG are going to be very unique, with the overriding specter of Covid-19, harsh weather conditions and other variables.

With all of these things in mind, we went to four biathlon experts for some thoughts on what they as possible on the biggest stage in sports, the Olympic Winter Games.

Our Panel of Experts

Helena Ekholm: Swedish Television Winterstudio biathlon expert commentator, 2009 World Cup Total Score titlist, 3 X IBU World Champion

Chad Salmela: NBC Sports Biathlon and Cross-country lead commentator, former World Cup biathlete and well-known collegiate coach

Liv Grete Skjelbreid: NRK Expert commentator, 2004 World Cup Total Score titlist, 3 X Olympic medalist and 6 X IBU World Champion

Dario Puppo: Italian Journalist and Eurosport expert commentator for biathlon, tennis and Olympic Sports

Conditions Preface

As a preface to these Winter Olympic Winter Games, virtually no one is familiar with the venue and conditions beyond the Chinese team and a few others who visited in the last month. The weather is expected to be cold, mid-teens Celsius, very low humidity with strong winds dominating on a daily basis. In all honesty, nothing new for biathlon. Everyone is well prepared for the altitude of 1, 665 meters, very similar to Antholz. Although some competitors fare better in the wind and altitude, everyone is on equal footing. They have had a week to check out the tracks and shooting range and prepare for the competitions. Those who come to the Games well-prepared, focused and healthy and are not distracted by things they cannot control will be successful. According to Salmela, “Based on reports of the venue, the snow promises to be slow and cold. I think this really is going to spread things out if that’s what happens, and you’re going to need ski power and great recovery to be good and stay good the whole two weeks.”

Mixed Relay Opening Salvo

The mixed relay is the opening salvo and could be the ice-breaker that opens door for some big names to start their Olympic collection. Salmela continues, “The mixed relay sets up a great pressure-release valve for the teams who take medals that first day, because 12 people: 6 men and 6 women, leave day one with a medal… The nations whose biggest medal favorites walk away with medals suddenly have a very strong probability of more medals; the cloak of pressure gets thrown off.”

Puppo suggests, “Norway is the one to beat together with France. Prediction: France.”

Men: Top teams, biggest stars

With that in mind, the two top teams and their big stars have an advantage in the individual competitions that follow. On the men’s side, the shortlist of potential medalists according to the NBC commentator who was recently on-site at both Ruhpolding and Antholz is “Quentin Fillon Maillet, the Boe Brothers, Sebastian Samuelsson, Martin Ponsiluoma, Loginov, Latypov, and Smolski (maybe Benedikt Doll or Johannes Kuehn if Germany has an incredible day).” No surprises there; they come later.”

Skjelbreid agrees, “I think there will be a nice fight between Fillon Maillet and Johannes Thingnes Boe for to be the biggest Olympic success among the men.” Ekholm after seeing JT over the past weeks added, “I think Johannes Thingnes Boe is on his way up to top shape right in time for the OWG. High expectations, of course on Samuelsson.”

Watch for Laegreid and…

Puppo is not so inclined to throw out too many names but suggests, “We won't see a dominating figure and I believe there will be many medalists. Laegreid is the one to watch out for, he told that and admitted his form was clearly not there at the start of the season. It is picking up now for the big event. A big surprise could come from Tero Seppala or even Vytautas Strolia. I am curious to see what Eduard Latypov can do after his COVID stop, which I believe will have given him even more motivation to do well in China. Watch out for Dominik Windisch, his form has sky-rocketed in January.”

Salmela threw out his surprising surprise list that includes: “Smolski, Vetle Sjaastad Christiansen (minor surprise), JT Boe, Latypov, Seppala and 19-year-old Campbell Wright.”

Women: Marte and the Oebergs

Moving on to the women, the group was almost unanimous about the lady wearing the Yellow Bib, Marte Olsbu Roeiseland. Yet there were still some hesitations about another Antholz 2020 in the making. Starting with Salmela, “I say the Oebergs, because the first race of the Olympics is the mixed relay (basically a team sprint). They may not win, their medal chances are very high, and to me, this unlocks the Olympic pressure right from day 1, then they are emotionally free to scorch-the-earth for the remaining two weeks. They won’t win everything, but with very-likely slow, cold snow, and altitude, aerobic capacity/fitness will matter while racing and for recovery.”

Regarding the Norwegian, he added, “Marte is the other big fave…She’s in a VERY good place physically, emotionally, and experience-wise, that puts her at the top of the spear to manage the things every athlete faces at this Olympics. Like the Oebergs, she has a team that will likely break the Games’ surface tension in the mixed relay.” Other individual medalists on his shortlist include: Dzinara Alimbekava, Lisa Theresa Hauser, Dorothea Wierer, Marketa Davidova with Anais Bescond Kristina Reztsova, Vanessa Voigt and Lotte Lie topping the potential medal surprises.

Doro and maybe Stina

Liv Grete concurs about her nation’s current biathlon darling but adds a qualifier. “I think Marte will be the biggest among the women. But it is very open and maybe Dorothea Wierer will find the way back to her best shape to give Olsbu Roeiseland a hard fight like in the 2020 IBU World Championship in Antholz.”

Puppo is an Olsbu Roeiseland supporter but throws a couple of other names in the hat; one an especially big surprise. “Olsbu Roeiseland will be the woman of these Olympics, but I think Julia Simon can be up there too. The surprise could come from Stina Nilsson if they let her compete on the sprint.” At the same time, Ekholm supports her home team, “High expectations on the Swedish women’s team in every competition and of course Marte as the biggest star of the Games.”

Relays to Scandinavian Powerhouses

Regarding the men’s and women’s relays, Puppo and Ekholm were the only ones to go out on that limb, although the favorites are obvious, if the BMW IBU World Cup results so far have any meaning. It all points to Scandinavia. Yet, the Italian sees no runaway winner in the men’s competition, “ROC will be very competitive and may be the main challenger to Norway. Prediction: Norway. As for the women, the steady “Sweden is the favourite and will probably be battling with France. Prediction: Sweden.

Ekholm stayed close to home for her relay predictions. “Sweden in the women’s relay and Norway in the men’s.”

Stay tuned…the next couple of weeks will be an exciting roller coaster ride, Olympic Winter Games style!

Photos: IBU/ Manzoni, Thibaut, Deubert, Helena Ekholm